Background and Objectives Time Frame
A leading pharmaceutical company wanted to assess the commercial opportunity for an asset for Tourette’s Syndrome (TS). SmartAnalyst was engaged to estimate:

  • Revenue forecast and NPV for base and ideal TPP
16 weeks
Approach and Recommendations (Methodology) Results
The overall approach was based on creation of a bottom-up, patient-based model, which required collation of information obtained from extensive secondary and primary research, and client’s foundational data. SmartAnalyst adopted a four-step process to accomplish the objectives:

Step 1: Current and Evolving Disease Landscape

  • Mapped current diagnosis and treatment algorithm and estimated addressable patient pool using information gathered from secondary research, supplemented with the client’s foundational data

Step 2: TPP Development and Testing

  • Developed a TPP for the asset with the inputs from the client’s medical/clinical team, taking into account the current/evolving thresholds for safety and efficacy to determine the asset’s potential place in the treatment algorithm
  • Key opinion leaders/treating physicians were interviewed to test the TPP and to seek their inputs on the minimal and optimal improvement desired over current benchmarks to further refine the TPP

Step 3: Revenue Forecast

  • Patient-based revenue forecast model was created to determine the asset’s revenue potential, preference share, and adoption (including the impact of new entrants and loss of exclusivity of marketed products)

Step 4: Valuation and Scenario Evaluation

  • Developed appropriate P&L assumptions to convert future revenue flows into cash flows after adjusting gross/operational costs; cost assumptions were based on industry benchmarks
  • Current and emerging disease landscape: Addressable pediatric and adult patient pool, including the respective diagnosed prevalence; patient flow; patient segment with high unmet needs
  • Asset’s place in therapy, preference share and likely adoption
  • Scenario evaluation (low case, base case, high case) for impact on revenue and NPV
    • Recommendations on optimum price range for each scenario/profile (base and ideal) along with estimated reimbursement challenges
  • Revenue forecast model: Asset revenue potential and NPV/ rNPV