Case Study

Assessing Commercial Potential
of an Asset in Tourette’s

Background and Objectives

A leading pharmaceutical company wanted to assess the commercial opportunity for an asset for Tourette’s Syndrome (TS). SmartAnalyst was engaged to estimate:

  • Revenue forecast and NPV for base and ideal TPP

Approach and Recommendations (Methodology)

The overall approach was based on creation of a bottom-up, patient-based model, which required collation of information obtained from extensive secondary and primary research, and client’s foundational data. SmartAnalyst adopted a four-step process to accomplish the objectives:

Step 1: Current and Evolving Disease Landscape

  • Mapped current diagnosis and treatment algorithm and estimated addressable patient pool using information gathered from secondary research, supplemented with the client’s foundational data

Step 2: TPP Development and Testing

  • Developed a TPP for the asset with the inputs from the client’s medical/clinical team, taking into account the current/evolving thresholds for safety and efficacy to determine the asset’s potential place in the treatment algorithm
  • Key opinion leaders/treating physicians were interviewed to test the TPP and to seek their inputs on the minimal and optimal improvement desired over current benchmarks to further refine the TPP

Step 3: Revenue Forecast

  • Patient-based revenue forecast model was created to determine the asset’s revenue potential, preference share, and adoption (including the impact of new entrants and loss of exclusivity of marketed products)

Step 4: Valuation and Scenario Evaluation

Developed appropriate P&L assumptions to convert future revenue flows into cash flows after adjusting gross/operational costs; cost assumptions were based on industry benchmarks

Time Frame

16 weeks


  • Current and emerging disease landscape: Addressable pediatric and adult patient pool, including the respective diagnosed prevalence; patient flow; patient segment with high unmet needs
  • Asset’s place in therapy, preference share and likely adoption
  • Scenario evaluation (low case, base case, high case) for impact on revenue and NPV
    • Recommendations on optimum price range for each scenario/profile (base and ideal) along with estimated reimbursement challenges
  • Revenue forecast model: Asset revenue potential and NPV/ rNPV

About SmartAnalyst: Driving pipeline and portfolio value for global biopharma and life science companies

SmartAnalyst helps biopharma companies make key decisions at the Disease, Asset, and Portfolio levels, utilizing our proprietary strategic frameworks.

We provide comprehensive, integrated solutions based on our deep understanding of the science, the market, and the key business decisions that our clients face. We deploy agile, cross-functional project teams that are responsive to client needs.