Case Study

Assessing Commercial Potential
of an Asset in Paroxysmal
Nocturnal Hemoglobinuria

Background and Objectives

A global biopharmaceutical company wanted to make informed clinical and commercial decisions to optimize commercial value for its asset (Product X) in development for the treatment of paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) in the US, EU5, and Japan. The objective was to:

  • Identify market- and product-related drivers likely to impact the clinical development strategy and commercial potential
  • Quantify the assumptions associated with identified drivers to provide inputs into a revenue forecast/commercial assessment

Approach and Recommendations (Methodology)

SmartAnalyst adopted a two-phased approach to accomplish the objectives wherein client’s foundational data was triangulated with information obtained from secondary research and in-depth, qualitative interviews with physicians, payors and patients; followed by quantitative market research

Phase I: Disease and Market Landscape and Analog Analysis

  • Developed an understanding of the current and emerging disease landscape, with a focus on management of PNH patients
  • Conducted qualitative interviews with key stakeholders to understand the current/emerging market landscape, role of biosimilars, relative importance of individual product attributes, overall perception of Product X, and key drivers/challenges for adoption with an aim to develop the range of potential market and product scenarios
  • Selected and analyzed appropriate analogs to benchmark uptake and time to peak

Phase II: Quantitative Survey and Conjoint Design

  • Developed choice-based questionnaire for quantitative conjoint survey incorporating scenarios identified in the previous step, i.e., attributes/thresholds (efficacy/safety/RoA/dosing frequency) and access considerations (step edits, co-payments)
  • Conducted quantitative survey with prescribers
  • Developed Simulator Model and analyzed prescribers’ responses from conjoint study

Time Frame

16 weeks


  • Key findings and implications for the client included
    • Range of product penetration/adoption by scenario for various patient segments and market scenarios
    • Impact of attribute trade-offs on adoption and underlying importance of various attributes in adoption decisions
    • Impact of key forecast drivers and underlying assumptions on commercial potential, value, and risk
  • Plausible commercial scenarios premised on product attributes and market access considerations
  • Conjoint Simulator Excel Model with scenarios, covering impact of attribute trade-offs on preference share, conversion to market share, and uptake
  • Time-to-peak analysis and recommendations

About SmartAnalyst: Driving pipeline and portfolio value for global biopharma and life science companies

SmartAnalyst helps biopharma companies make key decisions at the Disease, Asset, and Portfolio levels, utilizing our proprietary strategic frameworks.

We provide comprehensive, integrated solutions based on our deep understanding of the science, the market, and the key business decisions that our clients face. We deploy agile, cross-functional project teams that are responsive to client needs.